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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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