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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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