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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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