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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,300 kcal/kg NCV coal per ...
Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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