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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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