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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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