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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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