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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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