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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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