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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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