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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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