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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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