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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Tuesday, 16 October 18
A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With less than eighteen months before Regulation 14.1.3 of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention comes into effect, there are ...
Saturday, 13 October 18
SUPRAMAX: SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WAS EVIDENT AND RATES JUMPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with t ...
Wednesday, 10 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
During the end of last month the BHSI was hovering around 630 points, while the last observed sale on a 10-yr old Japanese Handy was the M/V Van Im ...
Monday, 08 October 18
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL 3.74% IN OCTOBER 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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