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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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