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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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