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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last three months approximately 72 tankers changed hands involving ships larger than 33kdwt up to VLCC. 43 of those vessels had to do ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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