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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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