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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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