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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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