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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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