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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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