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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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