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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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