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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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