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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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