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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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