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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,300 kcal/kg NCV coal per ...
Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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