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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
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Showing 1521 to 1525 news of total 6871 |
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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