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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
TOBA BARA ACQUIRES SHARES OF PT BATU HITAM PERKASA
PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk, through its subsidiary PT Toba Bara Energi (“TBE”), has acquired shares ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SUPRAMAX THERE WAS STRONGER DEMAND FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, WITH MORE COAL BEING SHIPPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a somewhat uncertain start as some gains made were eroded. Rates recovered later for West Australia/ ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD ISSUED A TENDER FOR MAX 3.220 MILLION TONS OF 4200 TO 5900 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) issued a tender for max 3,220,000 Metric Tons of coal to be loade ...
Saturday, 15 December 18
COMING CHANGES IN MARINE FUEL SULFUR LIMITS WILL AFFECT GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - EIA
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operat ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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