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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Tuesday, 25 December 18
FUEL QUALITY AND SAFETY IN IMO CONVENTIONS: A GROWING CHALLENGE, EVEN PRIOR TO 1 JANUARY 2020 - IUMI
At the 100th session of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) meeting discussions on fuel quality a ...
Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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