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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
...
Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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