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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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