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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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