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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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