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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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