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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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