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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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