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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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