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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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