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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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