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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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