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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
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Showing 1611 to 1615 news of total 6871 |
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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