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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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