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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
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Showing 1621 to 1625 news of total 6871 |
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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