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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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