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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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