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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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