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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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