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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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Showing 1561 to 1565 news of total 6871 |
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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