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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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Showing 1561 to 1565 news of total 6871 |
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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