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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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