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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
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Showing 1546 to 1550 news of total 6871 |
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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