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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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