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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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