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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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