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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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