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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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