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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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