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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last three months approximately 72 tankers changed hands involving ships larger than 33kdwt up to VLCC. 43 of those vessels had to do ...
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Showing 1586 to 1590 news of total 6871 |
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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