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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 16 October 18
A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With less than eighteen months before Regulation 14.1.3 of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention comes into effect, there are ...
Saturday, 13 October 18
SUPRAMAX: SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WAS EVIDENT AND RATES JUMPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with t ...
Wednesday, 10 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
During the end of last month the BHSI was hovering around 630 points, while the last observed sale on a 10-yr old Japanese Handy was the M/V Van Im ...
Monday, 08 October 18
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL 3.74% IN OCTOBER 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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