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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
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Showing 1601 to 1605 news of total 6871 |
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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