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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
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Showing 1611 to 1615 news of total 6871 |
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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