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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
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Showing 1621 to 1625 news of total 6871 |
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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